Almanac Barometer

Election Leaders Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Ekrem Imamoglu Devlet Bahçeli Fatih Erbakan Mansur Yavaş Müsavat Dervişoğlu Özgür Özel Selahattin Demirtaş Ümit Özdağ Presidential Election Political Parties Who Should Govern Turkey?

If there were an election today Who should govern Turkey Devlet Bahçeli Fatih Erbakan Mansur Yavaş Özgür Özel Müsavat Dervişoğlu Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Selahattin Demirtaş Ümit Özdağ Presidency Election Presidential Election Political Leaders Leaders Erdoğan's report card Report card President's report card Ekrem İmamoğlu

Undecided Non voters Ak Parti CHP Ak Parti voters CHP voters Polarization Political Polarization Right-Left Scale Hasan Kirmanoglu

Perceived political efficacy Confidence in understanding political issues Confidence in political discussion Perception of public-politician connection Perceived value of ordinary people’s opinions Nebi Sümer

Political Preferences Election Survey Vote Shares Undecided Voters Party Preferences Turkish Politics Voter Behaviors Party Loyalty Young Voters

Aytug Sasmaz religious leaders religiosity secularism daily life religious sources science logic religious rulings state order social order economic order political order legal order religious rules

secularism religiosity secularism score parliament elections leader strong leader military religious-based governance merit meritocracy multi-party system single-party system national governance government democratic democracy democratic governance democratic system

Election Electoral Alliances Electoral Strategies Parliamentary Election Political Parties Electoral District Supreme Election Council People’s Alliance Nation Alliance Labor and Freedom Alliance Zipper System

Negative Partisanship Voting Potentials Presidential Candidates Voter Behavior Political Polarization Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Muharrem İnce Sinan Oğan Election Age Groups Ethnic Background Undecided Voters

Voter Clusters Voter Profiles Voting Preferences Political Partis Presidential Candidates Socio-Demographics Gender Distribution Age Groups Ethnic Background Economic Status Media Consumption AK Parti (AKP) MHP CHP İYİ Parti HDP Undecided Voters Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Muharrem İnce Sinan Oğan

Perception of the parliament Perception of democracy Trust in politicians Perception of Syrians Perception of politicians’ privileges Party affiliation Elite–people divide Representation preference Perception of compromise in politics People’s decision-making power Perception of populism Populism scores of voter clusters Populism tendencies

Presidential Preferences Political Identity Definitions Left-Right Spectrum Voter Behaviors Voter Segmentation Intra-Party Voter Profiles Dynamics of Political Preferences Evaluation of Erdoğan Possible Effects of Election Results Turkey’s Political Future Barometer December '22 Barometer 137 Election Trends Motivation to Vote

Barometer 137 Negative Identification and Electoral Choice AK Parti Voter Tendency MHP Voter Tendency CHP Voter Tendency İYİ Parti Voter Tendency Saadet Voter Tendency DEVA Parti Voter Tendency Gelecek Partisi Voter Tendency Yeniden Refah Voter Tendency İşçi Partisi of Turkey Voter Tendency Government Bloc Opposition Bloc Other Political Parties Young Voter Behaviors Political Identity Among NEET Youth Ethnic Identity and Political Preference Support for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Support for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Support for Ekrem İmamoğlu Support for Mansur Yavaş Support for Meral Akşener December 2022 Barometer

Barometer 136 November 2022 Barometer Election Preferences and Presidential Candidate Choices Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu Question Probability of Erdoğan Winning the Election Possible Impacts of Erdoğan’s Victory Economic Impact of Government Policies Household Budget and Economic Perception Evaluation of Erdoğan’s Performance Election Scenarios Potential Candidates Against Erdoğan Estimated Vote Share for Erdoğan

Barometer 135 October '22 Barometer Election Preferences and Voting Tendency Leader Preferences Evaluation of Erdoğan Expectations for the Presidential Election Perception of Democracy Satisfaction Level with Democracy Expectation of Government Change Trust in Political Parties Political Representation Preferences Societal and Political Orientations

Barometer 134 September '22 Barometer Election Preferences and Tendency to Vote for Erdoğan Leader Preference: Erdoğan vs. Kılıçdaroğlu Motivation to Vote Probability of Erdoğan Winning the Election Evaluation of Erdoğan’s Performance Change in Party Support Over Time Political Orientation and Voter Behavior

Barometer132 June '22 June 2022 Barometer Election preferences Expectation of Erdoğan’s re-election Political loyalty Party affiliation Perception of overcoming the economic crisis Trust in leadership Economic confidence in Erdoğan Voter behavior Expectation of political stability

Barometer132 June '22 June 2022 Barometer Past voting behavior Undecided voter profile Political party identification Voting motivations Trust in Erdoğan Evaluation of the opposition Expectations for presidential candidates Perception of the Table of Six Demands for political change Dream of a better Turkey Perception of social problems Political expectations for the future Perception of the AK Parti

Barometer 131 May 2022 May 2022 Barometer Evaluation of Erdoğan’s performance Opposition alliance and expectations for a joint candidate Presidential election scenarios Willingness to vote for the opposition candidate Assessment of economic management Economic impact of government policies Economy after the introduction of the presidential system Current voting preferences Voting behavior in the June 24 election The AK Parti’s 20-year economic record

Barometer 131 May 2022 Barometer Everyday encounters with migrants Encounters by place or setting Solutions to the refugee issue Trust in political parties Gezi Park protests Perception of social protest Relationship between migration and politics Public opinion and social polarization Perception of migrants Syrian refugees

Barometer 130 April 2022 Barometer Information verification methods Perception of fake news Social media and politics Political parties followed Politicians followed Social media user profile Political discussion practices Perception of opinion similarity Attitude toward freedom of expression Media literacy Political communication Trust in TV channels Digital news consumption behaviors News sources Media trust

discrimination democracy judiciary / judgments confrontation coming to terms with the past perception of confronting the past Kurdish question Constitution fundamental principles of the Constitution polarization education in the mother tongue education in Kurdish social harmony conflict social conflict ethnic origin political identity differences different identities minorities minority rights majority minority 1915 Dersim September 6–7 Madımak Sivas Madımak Madımak Hotel Uludere Roboski February 28 Southeastern issue victim victimized group empathy

Barometer 127 January 2022 Barometer Social Fabric Map – Average Voter Affinity Presidential Candidate Profiles Affective Polarization Analysis Changes in the Political Spectrum Inter-Party Distance Voter Psychology Dimensions of Affective Polarization Differences in Political Orientation Social Distances

Social groups Distance Social distance between groups Voter clusters Ethnic origin Sect / denomination Lifestyles Identity Religion Barometer 127 January 2022 Barometer