Ak Parti CHP MHP Dem Parti HDP Zafer Partisi İyi parti Kararsızlar Siyasi tercihler Siyaset Oy Seçim Karne Karne notu Erdoğan'ın karnesi Ekrem İmamoğlu Mansur Yavaş Özgür Özel Cumhurbaşkanlığı Aday Güçlü devlet İstikrarlı ekonomi İnsancıl toplum Seçmen davranışı Oy verme davranışı Tarftar seçmen İdeolojik seçmen Son dakikacı İdeoloji

Voter tendencies Party preferences Distribution of undecided voters Leadership preferences Presidential election scenarios Erdoğan–İmamoğlu comparison Report card for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Evaluation of presidential performance Erdoğan's reelection prospects Election outcome expectations Perceptions of Turkey's future Political polarization Analysis of election scenarios

Siyaset Oy tercihi Seçim Erdoğan RTE Cumhurbaşkanı Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Erdoğan karne Türkiye'yi kim yönetsin? Devlet Bahçeli Ekrem İmamoğlu Mansur Yavaş Müsavat Dervişoğlu Özgür Özel Selahattin Demirtaş Ümit Özdağ Barometre 161

Politics Vote preference Election Erdogan RTE President President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan report card Early election Constitutional amendment Who should govern Turkey? Devlet Bahceli Ekrem İmamoglu Fatih Erbakan Mansur Yavas Müsavat Dervisoglu Ozgur Ozel Selahattin Demirtas Umit Ozdag Barometer160

Election Leaders Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Ekrem Imamoglu Devlet Bahçeli Fatih Erbakan Mansur Yavaş Müsavat Dervişoğlu Özgür Özel Selahattin Demirtaş Ümit Özdağ Presidential Election Political Parties Who Should Govern Turkey?

Almanac Barometer

If there were an election today Who should govern Turkey Devlet Bahçeli Fatih Erbakan Mansur Yavaş Özgür Özel Müsavat Dervişoğlu Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Selahattin Demirtaş Ümit Özdağ Presidency Election Presidential Election Political Leaders Leaders Erdoğan's report card Report card President's report card Ekrem İmamoğlu

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Hasan Kirmanoğlu Vote Preference Mehmet Şimşek report card Erdoğan's report card President Minister of Treasury and Finance Inflation Economy Governance Duty

Özgür Özel Selahattin Demirtaş Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Devlet Bahçeli Müsavat Dervişoğlu DEM Parti Political parties Political leaders Leaders Presidential speeches Speech analysis Populism Manichaeist Elitism Anti-elitism Discourse Presidential discourse Discourse analysis Dictionary method

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Erdoğan AKP Devlet Bahçeli MHP Meral Akşener İYİP DEM HDP Özgür Özel CHP Speech analysis Discourse analysis Political leaders Speech analysis of leaders Discourse analysis of leaders Speeches by leaders President President Erdoğan AK Party Good Party DEM Party Populism Terror Migration Employment Economy Turkey Turkish Nationalist Trustee Trusteeship Hakkari

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan AKP CHP MHP HDP DEM İYİP Vote preference Right-Left Right-Left Scale Erdoğan's report card President report card AK Party Good Party Victory Party ZP YRP Swing voters Non voters Election

Current politics İyi Party Musavat Dervisoglu Meral Aksener Leaders Leader change Chairperson Chairperson change

CHP Ak Parti Undecided Hasan Kirmanoglu Voter profile Tendency Swing voters

Political Leaders Political Leaders Speech Analysis DEM Özgür Özel DEM Party President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Populist discourse Political issues Discourse analysis Turkey Turkish National CHP Kobani Kurdish Political Politics Parliament Parliament speeches Democratic

Local elections Voter Turnout Voter turnout Voting 31 March 31 March elections 31 March Local Election Analysis Voting rate 31 March Local Elections Election results Invalis votes High turnout Low turnout Eastern Anatolia Southeastern Anatolia 2019 2024 2024 Local elections Ballot box Ballot box analysis

Socio-Economic SEGE 2022 SEGE Şişli Harran Istanbul Şanlıurfa Election Local election District-based analysis SEGE clusters CHP Ak Parti CHP voters Ak Parti voters Voter clusters Clusters Voter sizes Number of voters Absentee voters Invalid votes

March 31 local elections Ak Parti MHP CHP Municipal elections District municipalities Provincial municipalities Dem Parti cartogram Zafer Partisi İyi Parti vote transitions votes turnout rates invalid votes invalid vote rates Ballot box analysis ballot box

Vote rate Voter turnout Local elections 31 March 31 March Local Elections Kurdish Hasan Kirmanoglu District Turnout Regression Effective number of parties Ballot box analysis Correspondence analysis

If there was an election today March 31 Political Preferences Local elections Municipal elections Political Parties Political Leaders CHP Ak Party MHP İyi Party DEM Vote Vote preference March 31 Local Elections

Local Elections March 31st CHP Tactical Vote Vote behavior Undecided Provincial elections Municipal elections March 31st 2024 March 31st local elections Vote preference satisfaction Coalition Barometer 152 Aytuğ Şaşmaz Ak Parti-MHP Bloc Ak Parti-MHP

Local Elections Local Election Results 31 March Local Election Analysis 31 March elections Television Internet Social Media Twitter/X X Twitter Following the election results Ak Parti CHP MHP DEM HDP YSP İyi Parti FOX TV NOW TV ANKA ANKA News ANKA News Agency AA Anadolu Agency NTV TRT SHOW TV CNN TURK KANAL D ATV A HABER TRT HABER SZC TV Sözcü TV Halk TV Turk Star Kanal 7 TV100 News channels

Local Election March 31 Anger Surprise Joy Relief Disappointment Concern March 31 local elections Election result CHP Ak Parti DEM HDP MHP İyi Parti Post-election Post-election emotions Emotions after the election March 31 Local Elections

Election Evaluation Voter Election Evaluation Ak Parti CHP MHP New administration Change of administration Change of administration in CHP CHP candidates Candidate Candidate list CHP won Ak Parti lost Ak Parti administration Government After the local elections Wrong candidate Right candidate Municipalism Good municipalism CHP municipalities Ak Parti municipalities

Political Leaders Party Leaders Election process March 31st elections Local Elections RTE President President Erdoğan Imamoğlu Ekrem İmamoğlu Mansur Yavaş İBB ABB Istanbul Ankara Municipality elections Meral Akşener Fatih Erbakan Akşener Erbakan Tülay Hatimoğulları DEM Parti HDP Özgür Özel CHP Tactical vote Tuncer Bakırhan Scorecard Scorecard grades

Winner of the Election Loser of the Election Election 31st of March Ekrem İmamoğlu Mansur Yavaş CHP Özgür Özel Ak Parti Recep Tayyip Erdoğan President RTE Devlet Bahçeli MHP İyi Parti Meral Akşener Yeniden Refah Partisi Fatih Erbakan 31 March Local Elections

Nasipse Adayız Ercan Kesal Local Elections Municipal Elections Provincial Council Province District Local District Candidate Council Members Number of Provincial Council Members Ak Parti MHP CHP İyi Parti HDP DEM Provincial Population District Population Istanbul Istanbul Elections Istanbul Provincial Council Istanbul District Council District Municipal Council Districts of Istanbul Istanbul Districts

Ak Parti CHP HDP Dem Parti Discourse Propaganda Declaration Manifesto Party Manifesto March 31 2024 March 31 Elections Local Election March 31 Local Elections Local Government

March 31 Local Elections Election Vote Undecided Voters Voter Voter Profile IMM Mayoralty IMM Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu Murat Kurum Meral Danış Beştaş Buğra Kavuncu Birol Aydın Mehmet Altınöz Azmi Karamahmutoğlu CHP AK Party Undecided Voter Turnout

Political leaders Politicians' discourse Discourse Analysis Populism Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Devlet Bahçeli Özgür Özel Meral Akşener DEM Party Spokespersons Economy Employment Migration Terrorism Public order Environment/Climate Energy Education Local elections Metropolitan city Turkey Turkish Retired Kurdish Manichean discourse Anti-elitism

Leaders Discourse analysis Local elections March 31st elections Election discourses Recep Tayyip Erdoğan President Meral Akşener Devlet Bahçeli Özgür Özel İyi Parti MHP Terror Turkey Budget Martyr Ak Parti CHP

Undecided Non voters Ak Parti CHP Ak Parti voters CHP voters Polarization Political Polarization Right-Left Scale Hasan Kirmanoglu

Elections LEFT RIGHT Left and Right Left-Right Left-Right Scale Voter profile Left voter Right voter Leftist Rightist Left-Right tendency

Perceived political efficacy Confidence in understanding political issues Confidence in political discussion Perception of public-politician connection Perceived value of ordinary people’s opinions Nebi Sümer

Özgür Özel's recognition Impact of leadership change on vote preference Özgür Özel's impact on CHP Expectations of policy and discourse change Perception of Özgür Özel's sincerity Perception of Özgür Özel's competence Özgür Özel scorecard grade Effect of CHP leadership change on other parties’ vote shares

Party preferences Distribution of undecided voters Left-right political spectrum Political identity labels Erdoğan favorability Erdoğan scorecard grade Özgür Özel scorecard grade Ali Yerlikaya scorecard grade

Political Preferences Election Survey Vote Shares Undecided Voters Party Preferences Turkish Politics Voter Behaviors Party Loyalty Young Voters

KONDA Biopsy Report Election Survey Methodology Sampling Design Weighting Demographic Variables Education Age May 14th Election

Voter preferences Erdoğan’s performance Erdoğan’s approval rating Party opposition Turkey’s most important problems Trust in parties to solve problems Social expectations Dream of country resemblance Political tendencies Social tendencies

Election preferences Party preference Undecided voters Voting tendency Voter behavior Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Presidential performance Evaluation of Erdoğan Erdoğan’s approval level Political leader evaluation Current politics Public opinion poll Political analysis Election survey Erdogans score card

Voting preferences Party preference Undecided voters Voter behavior Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Presidential performance evaluation Erdoğan’s report card Kılıçdaroğlu’s report card Leader approval Political leader evaluation Election scenario Public opinion poll Political perception Voter attitudes Political approval Leadership evaluation Hypothetical election Voter decision-making process Political image

Election analysis Number of voters Voter ratio within the population Turnout rate General election turnout Presidential election turnout May 14 2023 election turnout map Difference in turnout rate between 2018–2023 Invalid vote rate Invalid vote map Invalid vote cartogram Districts with the highest invalid vote rates Election results Comparison of vote shares between 2018–2023 Vote shifts Comparison of election data Change in turnout between the 1st and 2nd rounds

General Elections May 14 Election Voter Analysis KONDA Barometer Earthquake Region Vote Loss Vote Gain Methodology Voter Behavior Political Preferences

Election Results Socio-Economic Development SEGE District Analysis Voter Behavior Political Preferences Vote Distribution KONDA Barometer Istanbul-Şişli Şanlıurfa-Harran Political Geography Regional Development Elections in Turkey Level of Development

Voter Profiles Presidential Election 2nd Round Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Party Loyalty Vote Volatility Media Preferences Social Media Usage Voter Behavior Election Analysis Political Demographics Vote Shares Election Results

Election Political Preferences Voting Behavior Alliances Presidential Election Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Muharrem İnce Sinan Oğan Undecided Voters Parliament Simulation Distribution of Seats Erdoğan’s Report Card Strategic Voting Majoritarian System Electoral Threshold Voter Profiles Political Leaders Turkish Politics Erdogan's score card

Voter Clusters Voter Profiles Voting Preferences Political Partis Presidential Candidates Socio-Demographics Gender Distribution Age Groups Ethnic Background Economic Status Media Consumption AK Parti (AKP) MHP CHP İYİ Parti HDP Undecided Voters Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Muharrem İnce Sinan Oğan

Election Electoral Alliances Electoral Strategies Parliamentary Election Political Parties Electoral District Supreme Election Council People’s Alliance Nation Alliance Labor and Freedom Alliance Zipper System

Voter preferences Recep Tayyip Erdoğan performance evaluation Effects of Erdoğan’s potential election victory Party loyalty Presidential election preferences Erdoğan–Kılıçdaroğlu comparison Hasan Kirmanoğlu voter tendencies Memleket Partisi vote share

election possibilities electoral alliances joint list independent candidacy voting process parliamentary structure Naci Koru Yetkin Report election analysis Supreme Election Council election calendar political developments election strategies alliance policies Turkish politics

Barometer138 January 2023 Barometer Election preferences Voting tendency Presidential election June 24 votes Voter turnout Undecided voters Election forecasts Will Erdoğan win the election? Will the opposition candidate win the election? Opposition’s potential for consensus Erdoğan’s report card Effects of the presidential election

exchange rate consumer confidence index economic crisis expectation of economic crisis AK Party MHP ruling bloc vote shift

Election preferences Change in party preferences Tendency to vote Presidential candidate preferences Erdoğan’s likelihood of winning the election Opposition candidate’s likelihood of winning the election Opposition’s capacity to nominate a joint candidate Evaluation of Erdoğan’s performance Election scenarios Political expectations Perception of social polarization

Perception of the parliament Perception of democracy Trust in politicians Perception of Syrians Perception of politicians’ privileges Party affiliation Elite–people divide Representation preference Perception of compromise in politics People’s decision-making power Perception of populism Populism scores of voter clusters Populism tendencies

Barometer 137 Negative Identification and Electoral Choice AK Parti Voter Tendency MHP Voter Tendency CHP Voter Tendency İYİ Parti Voter Tendency Saadet Voter Tendency DEVA Parti Voter Tendency Gelecek Partisi Voter Tendency Yeniden Refah Voter Tendency İşçi Partisi of Turkey Voter Tendency Government Bloc Opposition Bloc Other Political Parties Young Voter Behaviors Political Identity Among NEET Youth Ethnic Identity and Political Preference Support for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Support for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Support for Ekrem İmamoğlu Support for Mansur Yavaş Support for Meral Akşener December 2022 Barometer

Presidential Preferences Political Identity Definitions Left-Right Spectrum Voter Behaviors Voter Segmentation Intra-Party Voter Profiles Dynamics of Political Preferences Evaluation of Erdoğan Possible Effects of Election Results Turkey’s Political Future Barometer December '22 Barometer 137 Election Trends Motivation to Vote

Barometer 136 November 2022 Barometer Election Preferences and Presidential Candidate Choices Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu Question Probability of Erdoğan Winning the Election Possible Impacts of Erdoğan’s Victory Economic Impact of Government Policies Household Budget and Economic Perception Evaluation of Erdoğan’s Performance Election Scenarios Potential Candidates Against Erdoğan Estimated Vote Share for Erdoğan

Barometer 135 October '22 Barometer Election Preferences and Voting Tendency Leader Preferences Evaluation of Erdoğan Expectations for the Presidential Election Perception of Democracy Satisfaction Level with Democracy Expectation of Government Change Trust in Political Parties Political Representation Preferences Societal and Political Orientations

Barometer 134 September '22 Barometer Election Preferences and Tendency to Vote for Erdoğan Leader Preference: Erdoğan vs. Kılıçdaroğlu Motivation to Vote Probability of Erdoğan Winning the Election Evaluation of Erdoğan’s Performance Change in Party Support Over Time Political Orientation and Voter Behavior

Barometer 134 September '22 Barometer September 2022 Barometer Evaluation of the AK Party Era Infrastructure Services Healthcare Services Social Assistance Programs Environmental Policies Quality of Education Democratization Process Economic Development Income Inequality Access to Housing