Siyaset Oy tercihi Seçim Erdoğan RTE Cumhurbaşkanı Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Erdoğan karne Türkiye'yi kim yönetsin? Devlet Bahçeli Ekrem İmamoğlu Mansur Yavaş Müsavat Dervişoğlu Özgür Özel Selahattin Demirtaş Ümit Özdağ Barometre 161

Politics Vote preference Election Erdogan RTE President President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan report card Early election Constitutional amendment Who should govern Turkey? Devlet Bahceli Ekrem İmamoglu Fatih Erbakan Mansur Yavas Müsavat Dervisoglu Ozgur Ozel Selahattin Demirtas Umit Ozdag Barometer160

Almanac Barometer

If there were an election today Who should govern Turkey Devlet Bahçeli Fatih Erbakan Mansur Yavaş Özgür Özel Müsavat Dervişoğlu Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Selahattin Demirtaş Ümit Özdağ Presidency Election Presidential Election Political Leaders Leaders Erdoğan's report card Report card President's report card Ekrem İmamoğlu

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Hasan Kirmanoğlu Vote Preference Mehmet Şimşek report card Erdoğan's report card President Minister of Treasury and Finance Inflation Economy Governance Duty

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan AKP CHP MHP HDP DEM İYİP Vote preference Right-Left Right-Left Scale Erdoğan's report card President report card AK Party Good Party Victory Party ZP YRP Swing voters Non voters Election

Local elections Voter Turnout Voter turnout Voting 31 March 31 March elections 31 March Local Election Analysis Voting rate 31 March Local Elections Election results Invalis votes High turnout Low turnout Eastern Anatolia Southeastern Anatolia 2019 2024 2024 Local elections Ballot box Ballot box analysis

Vote rate Voter turnout Local elections 31 March 31 March Local Elections Kurdish Hasan Kirmanoglu District Turnout Regression Effective number of parties Ballot box analysis Correspondence analysis

March 31 local elections Ak Parti MHP CHP Municipal elections District municipalities Provincial municipalities Dem Parti cartogram Zafer Partisi İyi Parti vote transitions votes turnout rates invalid votes invalid vote rates Ballot box analysis ballot box

Socio-Economic SEGE 2022 SEGE Şişli Harran Istanbul Şanlıurfa Election Local election District-based analysis SEGE clusters CHP Ak Parti CHP voters Ak Parti voters Voter clusters Clusters Voter sizes Number of voters Absentee voters Invalid votes

Political polarization Polarization Kurdish issue Kurdish problem Kurdish Economy Country's economy Dollar Euro Exchange rate difference Municipality Local government Government Municipality and government Service Municipal service Local government service Improvement Worsening Government administration

Election Evaluation Voter Election Evaluation Ak Parti CHP MHP New administration Change of administration Change of administration in CHP CHP candidates Candidate Candidate list CHP won Ak Parti lost Ak Parti administration Government After the local elections Wrong candidate Right candidate Municipalism Good municipalism CHP municipalities Ak Parti municipalities

Winner of the Election Loser of the Election Election 31st of March Ekrem İmamoğlu Mansur Yavaş CHP Özgür Özel Ak Parti Recep Tayyip Erdoğan President RTE Devlet Bahçeli MHP İyi Parti Meral Akşener Yeniden Refah Partisi Fatih Erbakan 31 March Local Elections

Local Election March 31 Anger Surprise Joy Relief Disappointment Concern March 31 local elections Election result CHP Ak Parti DEM HDP MHP İyi Parti Post-election Post-election emotions Emotions after the election March 31 Local Elections

Local Elections Local Election Results 31 March Local Election Analysis 31 March elections Television Internet Social Media Twitter/X X Twitter Following the election results Ak Parti CHP MHP DEM HDP YSP İyi Parti FOX TV NOW TV ANKA ANKA News ANKA News Agency AA Anadolu Agency NTV TRT SHOW TV CNN TURK KANAL D ATV A HABER TRT HABER SZC TV Sözcü TV Halk TV Turk Star Kanal 7 TV100 News channels

Local Elections March 31st CHP Tactical Vote Vote behavior Undecided Provincial elections Municipal elections March 31st 2024 March 31st local elections Vote preference satisfaction Coalition Barometer 152 Aytuğ Şaşmaz Ak Parti-MHP Bloc Ak Parti-MHP

If there was an election today March 31 Political Preferences Local elections Municipal elections Political Parties Political Leaders CHP Ak Party MHP İyi Party DEM Vote Vote preference March 31 Local Elections

Political Leaders Party Leaders Election process March 31st elections Local Elections RTE President President Erdoğan Imamoğlu Ekrem İmamoğlu Mansur Yavaş İBB ABB Istanbul Ankara Municipality elections Meral Akşener Fatih Erbakan Akşener Erbakan Tülay Hatimoğulları DEM Parti HDP Özgür Özel CHP Tactical vote Tuncer Bakırhan Scorecard Scorecard grades

Prof. Dr. Hasan Kirmanoğlu Hasan Kirmanoğlu Local Election Local Elections Municipal Elections Municipal Election Candidates Local Election Candidates Candidate Evaluation Ekrem İmamoğlu Murat Kurum İmamoğlu Kurum IMM Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Istanbul Elections Istanbul Candidates March Elections

IMM Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Istanbul Elections Istanbul Election Candidates IMM Candidates Local Elections Istanbul Municipal Election Istanbul Election Nominees Local Election Candidates Ekrem İmamoğlu Murat Kurum Oratory Istanbul Problems of Istanbul Honest Sincere Buğra Kavuncu Meral Danış Beştaş Mehmet Altınöz Sinem Dedetaş Mahir Polat Deniz Köken Ahmet Özer Mehmet Tevfik Göksu Rıza Akpolat

March 31 Local Elections Election Vote Undecided Voters Voter Voter Profile IMM Mayoralty IMM Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu Murat Kurum Meral Danış Beştaş Buğra Kavuncu Birol Aydın Mehmet Altınöz Azmi Karamahmutoğlu CHP AK Party Undecided Voter Turnout

Nasipse Adayız Ercan Kesal Local Elections Municipal Elections Provincial Council Province District Local District Candidate Council Members Number of Provincial Council Members Ak Parti MHP CHP İyi Parti HDP DEM Provincial Population District Population Istanbul Istanbul Elections Istanbul Provincial Council Istanbul District Council District Municipal Council Districts of Istanbul Istanbul Districts

Political Preferences Vote preference Election General election Parliamentary election Party preference Voter Behavior Erdogan scorecard President Erdoğan Economic management Economic prosperity Ideological voter Last minute voter Voter Leader Fan Fan voter Voter clusters

General election Local election Vote preference Party affiliation Ruling party Mayoral candidate Urban life Urban satisfaction City life facilities Municipality facilities Voter profile Voter satisfaction Municipality satisfaction Local election vote preference Political party decisions

Leaders Discourse analysis Local elections March 31st elections Election discourses Recep Tayyip Erdoğan President Meral Akşener Devlet Bahçeli Özgür Özel İyi Parti MHP Terror Turkey Budget Martyr Ak Parti CHP

Undecided Non voters Ak Parti CHP Ak Parti voters CHP voters Polarization Political Polarization Right-Left Scale Hasan Kirmanoglu

Elections LEFT RIGHT Left and Right Left-Right Left-Right Scale Voter profile Left voter Right voter Leftist Rightist Left-Right tendency

The year of 2023 Memorable events February 6 earthquake February 6–7 earthquakes Kahramanmaraş earthquakes Collective memory Most significant event of 2023 Perception of major societal events Open-ended memory question Highlights of Turkey’s public agenda

March 31st elections March 31st local elections Local Election

Party preferences Distribution of undecided voters Left-right political spectrum Political identity labels Erdoğan favorability Erdoğan scorecard grade Özgür Özel scorecard grade Ali Yerlikaya scorecard grade

KONDA Biopsy Report Election Survey Methodology Sampling Design Weighting Demographic Variables Education Age May 14th Election

Voter preferences Erdoğan’s performance Erdoğan’s approval rating Party opposition Turkey’s most important problems Trust in parties to solve problems Social expectations Dream of country resemblance Political tendencies Social tendencies

Election preferences Party preference Undecided voters Voting tendency Voter behavior Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Presidential performance Evaluation of Erdoğan Erdoğan’s approval level Political leader evaluation Current politics Public opinion poll Political analysis Election survey Erdogans score card

Presidential election Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Kılıçdaroğlu voters Voter motivations Voter expectations Voter concerns Perception of the opposition View of Kılıçdaroğlu View of Erdoğan Perception of the government Ideal leader profile Leadership expectations Political emotions Dominant emotions Left-wing populism World of meaning Voter evaluation Political analysis Hope and expectation Opposition voter profile

Voting preferences Party preference Undecided voters Voter behavior Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Presidential performance evaluation Erdoğan’s report card Kılıçdaroğlu’s report card Leader approval Political leader evaluation Election scenario Public opinion poll Political perception Voter attitudes Political approval Leadership evaluation Hypothetical election Voter decision-making process Political image

Presidential Election 1st Round Vote Analysis Regional Distribution Election Results Erdoğan Kılıçdaroğlu Earthquake Region Turnout

KONDA Public Statement May 14 2023 Elections May 28

Voter Profiles Presidential Election 2nd Round Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Party Loyalty Vote Volatility Media Preferences Social Media Usage Voter Behavior Election Analysis Political Demographics Vote Shares Election Results

Election Results Socio-Economic Development SEGE District Analysis Voter Behavior Political Preferences Vote Distribution KONDA Barometer Istanbul-Şişli Şanlıurfa-Harran Political Geography Regional Development Elections in Turkey Level of Development

Ballot Boxes Voter Turnout Presidential Election Vote Shares Election Security Election Analysis District-Based Data Number of Voters Election Results 1st Round 2nd Round Voting Election Literacy

Presidential Election 2nd Round Vote Analysis Election Results Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu District-Based Analysis Vote Changes Voter Behavior Political Preferences Election Maps Election Strategies

General Elections May 14 Election Voter Analysis KONDA Barometer Earthquake Region Vote Loss Vote Gain Methodology Voter Behavior Political Preferences

Election analysis Number of voters Voter ratio within the population Turnout rate General election turnout Presidential election turnout May 14 2023 election turnout map Difference in turnout rate between 2018–2023 Invalid vote rate Invalid vote map Invalid vote cartogram Districts with the highest invalid vote rates Election results Comparison of vote shares between 2018–2023 Vote shifts Comparison of election data Change in turnout between the 1st and 2nd rounds

Election Political Preferences Voting Behavior Alliances Presidential Election Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Muharrem İnce Sinan Oğan Undecided Voters Parliament Simulation Distribution of Seats Erdoğan’s Report Card Strategic Voting Majoritarian System Electoral Threshold Voter Profiles Political Leaders Turkish Politics Erdogan's score card

Election Electoral Alliances Electoral Strategies Parliamentary Election Political Parties Electoral District Supreme Election Council People’s Alliance Nation Alliance Labor and Freedom Alliance Zipper System

Affective Polarization Presidential Elections Perception of Political Leaders Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Respect Trust Admiration Appreciation Sincerity Hatred Voter Attitudes Political Psychology Public Opinion Research Leader Image

Negative Partisanship Voting Potentials Presidential Candidates Voter Behavior Political Polarization Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Muharrem İnce Sinan Oğan Election Age Groups Ethnic Background Undecided Voters

Election Security Voter Lists Vote Counting Public Opinion Polls Manipulation Voting Preference Elections Perception Young Voters Education Level Polarization People’s Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı) Labor and Freedom Alliance (Emek ve Özgürlük İttifakı) Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Muharrem İnce

Voter Clusters Voter Profiles Voting Preferences Political Partis Presidential Candidates Socio-Demographics Gender Distribution Age Groups Ethnic Background Economic Status Media Consumption AK Parti (AKP) MHP CHP İYİ Parti HDP Undecided Voters Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Muharrem İnce Sinan Oğan

election possibilities electoral alliances joint list independent candidacy voting process parliamentary structure Naci Koru Yetkin Report election analysis Supreme Election Council election calendar political developments election strategies alliance policies Turkish politics

Voter preferences Recep Tayyip Erdoğan performance evaluation Effects of Erdoğan’s potential election victory Party loyalty Presidential election preferences Erdoğan–Kılıçdaroğlu comparison Hasan Kirmanoğlu voter tendencies Memleket Partisi vote share

Barometer138 January 2023 Barometer Election preferences Voting tendency Presidential election June 24 votes Voter turnout Undecided voters Election forecasts Will Erdoğan win the election? Will the opposition candidate win the election? Opposition’s potential for consensus Erdoğan’s report card Effects of the presidential election

exchange rate consumer confidence index economic crisis expectation of economic crisis AK Party MHP ruling bloc vote shift

earthquake natural disaster earthquake and election Barometer139 voter gratitude impact of the earthquake

Perception of the parliament Perception of democracy Trust in politicians Perception of Syrians Perception of politicians’ privileges Party affiliation Elite–people divide Representation preference Perception of compromise in politics People’s decision-making power Perception of populism Populism scores of voter clusters Populism tendencies

Election preferences Change in party preferences Tendency to vote Presidential candidate preferences Erdoğan’s likelihood of winning the election Opposition candidate’s likelihood of winning the election Opposition’s capacity to nominate a joint candidate Evaluation of Erdoğan’s performance Election scenarios Political expectations Perception of social polarization

Presidential Preferences Political Identity Definitions Left-Right Spectrum Voter Behaviors Voter Segmentation Intra-Party Voter Profiles Dynamics of Political Preferences Evaluation of Erdoğan Possible Effects of Election Results Turkey’s Political Future Barometer December '22 Barometer 137 Election Trends Motivation to Vote

Barometer 137 Negative Identification and Electoral Choice AK Parti Voter Tendency MHP Voter Tendency CHP Voter Tendency İYİ Parti Voter Tendency Saadet Voter Tendency DEVA Parti Voter Tendency Gelecek Partisi Voter Tendency Yeniden Refah Voter Tendency İşçi Partisi of Turkey Voter Tendency Government Bloc Opposition Bloc Other Political Parties Young Voter Behaviors Political Identity Among NEET Youth Ethnic Identity and Political Preference Support for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Support for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Support for Ekrem İmamoğlu Support for Mansur Yavaş Support for Meral Akşener December 2022 Barometer

Barometer 136 November 2022 Barometer Election Preferences and Presidential Candidate Choices Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu Question Probability of Erdoğan Winning the Election Possible Impacts of Erdoğan’s Victory Economic Impact of Government Policies Household Budget and Economic Perception Evaluation of Erdoğan’s Performance Election Scenarios Potential Candidates Against Erdoğan Estimated Vote Share for Erdoğan

Barometer 134 September '22 Barometer Election Preferences and Tendency to Vote for Erdoğan Leader Preference: Erdoğan vs. Kılıçdaroğlu Motivation to Vote Probability of Erdoğan Winning the Election Evaluation of Erdoğan’s Performance Change in Party Support Over Time Political Orientation and Voter Behavior